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What to expect from the FOMC today đź‘€
My trade of the day is....
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Morning all,
Markets are moving higher this morning on optimism that China and US can talk out some tariff issues. In addition to this news Fed Powell will be releasing the latest rate decision as well as post decision conference.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 4.25%–4.50% at today's FOMC meeting, with the decision scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m.
Key Factors Influencing the Fed's Decision
Mixed Economic Signals: While first-quarter GDP contracted, employment and consumer spending remain strong. Inflation data is also mixed, with overall inflation easing to 2.3% in March, but core inflation remains above 2.6%.
Trade Policy Impact: Recent tariffs have introduced uncertainty, with potential inflationary effects yet to be fully realized. The Fed is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting clearer data before making policy shifts.
Political Pressure: President Trump has been vocal in urging the Fed to cut rates, but the central bank emphasizes data-driven decisions, focusing on inflation and employment metrics.
Market Expectations
Financial markets have priced in a 97% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady today. However, expectations for rate cuts later in the year persist, with some economists anticipating potential easing starting in July.
What to Watch
Powell's Commentary: Investors will closely monitor Chair Powell's remarks for any indications of future policy direction, especially concerning inflation and economic growth.
Economic Data: Upcoming data releases will be critical in shaping the Fed's decisions in subsequent meetings.
How will I look to trade this?
My feeling is that markets will run higher from the 2:30pm conference so I’ll be looking for SPY calls today with a possible “Lotto” idea into 2pm of SPY calls as well.
How do you think the stock market will react to today’s Fed announcement? |
Make sure you join me for live updates and details in the Market Masters chat room.
Wednesday’s schedule:
9 - 9:20am ET Premarket scans w/Jeff Williams
3 - 4pm ET Penny stockin’ w/Jeff Williams
8pm ET Jeff Bishop & Olivia Voz “The Gameplan” LIVE
Cheers
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