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What kind of rate cut could we be seeingš¤
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Traders are eagerly waiting for the Fed to cut rates, will it happen next Wednesday and if so, by how much?
Hereās whatās expected at the Federal Reserveās next interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday, September 17, 2025:
Date & Timing
The FOMC meeting runs September 16ā17, with the rate decision set for Wednesday, September 17, 2025 at around 2:00 PM ET (6:00 PM UTC)
Market Expectations
The first of three interest rate cuts this year is expected at this meeting, with markets pricing in a 75%ā90% chance of a 25 basis point cut
Some institutions, like Standard Chartered, have raised the possibility of a larger moveāa 50 basis point cutābut this remains a smaller, 10ā14% probability
Economic Drivers Behind the Move
Revised Labor Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics downgraded job growth significantlyāby approximately 911,000 fewer jobs between April 2024 and March 2025āsuggesting a much softer labor market than previously estimated
Inflation Still Elevated: Core CPI is around 3.1% and core PCE is at 2.9%āboth above the Fedās 2% targetāraising questions about the timing for a cut
Fed Officialsā Perspectives
Christopher Waller, Fed Governor, is advocating for early and multiple rate cuts, to act proactively while conditions are still favorable
Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President, cautions that while current conditions appear balanced, more data is needed before committing to a cut
In short: The Fed is highly expected to cut rates by 0.25% at the next meeting, driven largely by softer labor market signals, though elevated inflation continues to temper the pace. A larger, 50-basis point cut remains unlikely but not impossible, as some economists and institutions speculate.
Based on these speculations, I am looking to go Long SPY calls into next week. How about you?
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š Do you think the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates |

Jeff Williams
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