What kind of rate cut could we be seeingšŸ¤”

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Traders are eagerly waiting for the Fed to cut rates, will it happen next Wednesday and if so, by how much?

Here’s what’s expected at the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday, September 17, 2025:

Date & Timing

The FOMC meeting runs September 16–17, with the rate decision set for Wednesday, September 17, 2025 at around 2:00 PM ET (6:00 PM UTC) 

Market Expectations

  • The first of three interest rate cuts this year is expected at this meeting, with markets pricing in a 75%–90% chance of a 25 basis point cut 

  • Some institutions, like Standard Chartered, have raised the possibility of a larger move—a 50 basis point cut—but this remains a smaller, 10–14% probability

Economic Drivers Behind the Move

  • Revised Labor Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics downgraded job growth significantly—by approximately 911,000 fewer jobs between April 2024 and March 2025—suggesting a much softer labor market than previously estimated

  • Inflation Still Elevated: Core CPI is around 3.1% and core PCE is at 2.9%—both above the Fed’s 2% target—raising questions about the timing for a cut

Fed Officials’ Perspectives

  • Christopher Waller, Fed Governor, is advocating for early and multiple rate cuts, to act proactively while conditions are still favorable

  • Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President, cautions that while current conditions appear balanced, more data is needed before committing to a cut 

In short: The Fed is highly expected to cut rates by 0.25% at the next meeting, driven largely by softer labor market signals, though elevated inflation continues to temper the pace. A larger, 50-basis point cut remains unlikely but not impossible, as some economists and institutions speculate.

Based on these speculations, I am looking to go Long SPY calls into next week. How about you?

Come join us in the Market Master’s chat room while it’s still open šŸ‘‡ļø 

Jeff Williams

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