Today’s key jobs report 🔑

How I’ll be trading this report

June 06, 2025

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 What to expect from today’s report.

  • Nonfarm payrolls: Growth is projected to slow significantly, with estimates ranging from 125,000 to 130,000 new jobs—down from April’s 177,000.

  • Unemployment rate: Expected to remain steady at 4.2%, unchanged for a third consecutive month.

  • Wage growth (Average Hourly Earnings): Forecasted to rise by 0.3% in May and about 3.7% year-over-year, a slight cooling from April’s 3.8% increase.

What are the causes of the data today?

  • Trade war impact: Tariff tensions are causing uncertainty in hiring, especially in manufacturing and construction—employers are hesitant to expand.

  • Private-sector slowdown: ADP data showed the weakest private employment growth since March 2023, and an uptick in weekly jobless claims suggests some labor-side softness.

  • Federal Reserve implications: A softer jobs report could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hold, possibly accelerating talk of rate cuts later this year, though an outright cut isn't expected immediately.

What I’ll look for in the report

  1. Nonfarm payrolls: A surprise well below ~125K might signal deeper labor-market weakness.

  2. Unemployment rate: Any climb above 4.2% would be notable.

  3. Wage data: Momentum in earnings is a key driver of inflation; slower wage growth could ease Fed hawkishness.

  4. Sectoral breakdown & revisions: Watch for downward revisions to April and signs of hiring pullbacks in sensitive industries.

Key Takeaways

Expectations point to modest job gains (~125–130K), a steady 4.2% jobless rate, and cooling wage growth. This reflects a labor market gradually decelerating under economic uncertainty. Investors and policymakers will be looking closely at these signals—particularly wage data and timing of any future Fed moves.

If data comes in as expected and markets jump at the 8:30am news drop, then I’ll be watching for possible SPY calls with a target goal of $599 to $600 today on SPY. If data disappoints and SPY drops, then I’ll  be looking for a SPY put trade with a target of $590 to $588 by close.

What will you be trading today?

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