Key expectations from the FOMC minutes today

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July 09, 2025

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Tim Bohen & Jeff Bishop Detail:

Good morning all and welcome to another learning session here with us.

Here’s what market watchers are anticipating from the release of the FOMC minutes today at 2 p.m. EDT:

Key Expectations

1. Internal Divide on Rate Cuts

  • The minutes will likely reveal a split among policymakers: some favor early rate cuts (Fed governors Waller & Bowman), while others remain cautious, opting to wait for more data.

  • Breakdown from June meeting: 9 officials foresee zero or one cut, 8 expect two cuts, and 2 project three cuts in 2025.

2. Tariffs & Inflation Concerns

  • Expect detailed discussion about the inflationary impact of rising tariffs—whether price increases are temporary or persistent.

  • Policy watchers will look for hints on how the Fed plans to respond if tariffs push inflation higher.

3. Clues on September Move

  • With July ruled out, all eyes shift to September. The minutes may signal what needs to happen—softer inflation or labor tightening—to prompt a cut then.

  • Will they reflect a more dovish turn than Powell’s public stance? Analysts hope so.

Why It Matters

  • Market Sentiment: Investors are pricing in a September rate cut with over 60% probability; the minutes could reinforce or challenge that view .

  • Policy Guidance: Look for language around “wait-and-see,” evolving uncertainties, and the criteria (data triggers) for shifting policy—be it inflation readings or labor market developments.

  • Tariff vs. Jobs Balance: The minutes may give insight into how the Fed is weighing trade-related inflation against potential economic slowdowns.

💡 Bottom line:
The minutes should shed light on the debate's intensity over rate cuts, the tariff‑inflation dilemma, and what it will take—likely data from summer—for the Fed to pivot in September.

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