Is Friday Looking hot or not 🤔

I’m watching this trade idea today

May 09, 2025

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Good morning traders,

Here we go, looking to close the week strong as markets once again try to push up to or above the 200 SMA on the daily chart. I am looking for a bullish move on SPY today but here are a few things I’ll be looking at for some guided direction.

Key Market Drivers:

  1. U.S.-China Trade Talks:

    • High-level trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are scheduled to begin this weekend in Switzerland. Any positive outcome here could push markets much higher.

    • The U.S. is considering reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to between 50% and 54% as early as next week, signaling a potential de-escalation in trade tensions.

    • President Trump has described the upcoming talks as potentially "very substantive," indicating a willingness to reduce tariffs if negotiations proceed favorably. If things go well here then I would fully expect markets to gap up and run strong next week, but time will tell.

  2. Economic Indicators:

    • China reported a 21% drop in goods shipments to the U.S. in April compared to the previous year, reflecting the impact of current tariffs.

    • Despite this, China's overall exports exceeded forecasts, partly due to a global rush to beat impending tariffs.

  3. Federal Reserve Outlook:

    • Federal Reserve officials are expected to issue statements amid ongoing concerns that tariffs could drive both inflation and unemployment higher. Today we have Fed speakers on tap from 6am to later this afternoon, so watch for volatile moments.

    • The Fed has maintained current interest rates in light of these risks.

  4. Oil Prices:

    • Oil prices have risen by 3%, supported by hopes of progress in U.S.-China trade talks, which could alleviate global economic uncertainties.

Overall, I am cautiously optimistic today and I hope we close the day and week strong. I’ll be looking for a short term call option trade today if SPY can stay above $564.

Make sure you join me for live updates and details in the Market Masters chat room.

Friday’s schedule:

9 - 9:20am ET Premarket scans w/Jeff Williams

11am ET Jeff Bishop & Olivia Voz LIVE encore

1- 2pm ET Kelly Allman Live training

3 - 4pm ET Penny stock “Power Hour” w/Jeff Williams

See you soon!

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