Is a rate cut coming 🤔

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August 12, 2025

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Good morning all, here we go on the heals of another BIG TIME inflation reading at 8:30am today with some CPI data and then PPI data on Thursday.

Here’s the current market outlook as of August 12, 2025 on whether a Federal Reserve rate cut is expected in September:

Market Expectations

  • CME FedWatch Tool indicates traders are currently pricing in a ~88–90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September

  • Goldman Sachs forecasts the Fed will start a sequence of three 25-basis-point cuts beginning in September

  • JPMorgan Chase also anticipates the first cut in September, with a total of four cuts through January 2026, driven by soft labor market data and dovish tilt from recent Fed board moves

  • Fed officials, like Michelle Bowman, have voiced support for rate cuts based on recent weak jobs figures, reinforcing market sentiment for easing.

Potential Headwinds

  • New inflation data due this week could shake things up: If inflation comes in hotter than anticipated, it might dampen rate-cut odds

  • Some analysts remain cautious, arguing that while economic growth may be faltering, it hasn’t deteriorated enough to guarantee a cut

  • Fed rhetoric is still somewhat guarded. Recent comments from Chair Powell emphasized a “wait-and-see” stance, which had previously caused market pricing for a September cut to retreat 

Bottom Line

Yes — markets are strongly expecting a rate cut in September, with probabilities hovering near 90% according to futures markets and major institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecasting the first of several cuts starting then. However, the final decision will hinge on upcoming data, especially inflation readings. A surprising CPI outcome could shift the outlook in either direction.

For these reasons and a few others, I will continue to look to buy SPY call options on any bigger dips and play the current uptrend.

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