4 Reasons Markets Are Moving Right Now

Key drivers

September 12, 2025

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Good morning traders,

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So, what is driving markets right now and where could we be going? Here is a look at 4 key drivers right now for stocks.

Key Drivers

  1. Softening Labor Market / Weak Jobs Data

    • Weekly jobless claims have risen sharply — up to ~263,000 in early September, the highest in nearly 4 years.

    • Nonfarm payrolls growth has shown signs of slowing; plus, earlier employment data for the past year were revised down by ~911,000 jobs.

    • This weaker labor market is increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

  2. Inflation Remains Above Target / Sticky Price Pressures

    • August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at ~2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is also elevated.

    • There are pressures from things like tariffs (especially on automobiles) pushing up production and consumer costs.

    • Wholesale and producer prices have shown some cooling/slowing, which is giving markets hope that inflation might abate enough to allow rate cuts.

  3. Rate Cut Expectations

    • Because the labor market is softening, and inflation is showing signs of easing (or at least not accelerating wildly), markets are increasingly pricing in a Fed rate cut, likely in the next FOMC meeting.

    • There’s some debate: how many cuts, how aggressive, and whether inflation will force the Fed’s hand to move more slowly.

  4. Strong Tech / AI Sentiment

    • AI-related optimism continues to be a tailwind. Companies with exposure to AI (hardware, semiconductors, cloud) are seeing strong growth or forward guidance that is bolstering the tech sector.

    • Big moves (e.g. Oracle, Taiwan Semiconductor) around AI contracts and strong demand are reinforcing that theme.

Those are a few things I am watching, what’s on your radar?

Jeff Williams

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