3 Key Points For Your Friday Trading

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June 20, 2025

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Good morning all, 

Markets are relatively flat headed into the close of the week but here are 3 things that could shape your trading today.

 1. Geopolitical Tensions & Oil Surge

  • Escalating Israel–Iran conflict is reigniting fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has jumped ~20% this June—its largest monthly rise since 2020—trading around $77/barrel. Energy and defense stocks are rallying, while oil-sensitive sectors like airlines lag

  • The U.S. may weigh intervention as President Trump is reportedly deciding within two weeks—heightening market uncertainty 

 2. Federal Reserve Outlook & Dollar Weakness

  • The Fed’s widely anticipated rate hold, paired with signals about possible rate cuts in 2025, is easing investor concerns

  • A softer U.S. dollar, feeling pressure from uncertainty and dovish tones, is benefiting emerging markets

3. Volatility & Fed-Centric Calm

  • Markets remain relatively calm despite geopolitical shocks. The low-VIX environment reflects investor belief that major conflicts may be contained, though analysts warn this calm might conceal deeper risks

  • “Triple witching” today (quadruple expiry of index futures, equity options, etc.) also brings short-term swings .

Today I’ll be watching for SPY to possibly rally early but fade late as many options are set to expire due to triple witching. 

If you’re looking for more insight on my options trading and penny stock trading then be sure to catch me in the Market Masters chat room from 9am to 11am and then 3pm to 4pm each day!

Cheers

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